Coronavirus - a possible pandemic?

Countymouse - that's something I try to point out. Although some places, like Italy, are somewhat out of control, having about 5k CONFIRMED cases in the whole US, out of something like 327 MILLION people, that's not out of control, yet. Some areas have a lot of cases (WA, CA, NY), so it is wise to be cautious. Some conditions lend to becoming more ill and/or dying, but for most of us... Think about how many people might have been exposed, might have had mild cases, might not have had symptoms and certainly have NOT been counted. They did just lock down mom's facility, but although it would be more dangerous for all there, it isn't a NH, so medical issues are not as critical. All IL and AL need to stay in rooms, take meals in rooms, etc, but MC will proceed as was, minus any outside influences.

It is sad that so many are panicking and making life difficult for the rest of us...

Now they are saying this could last until July or August? Yipes, I know I can't self-isolate that long. I am thankful for the influx of grocery and food delivery services in my area. It does make life a bit easier.

There is 1 case in [my county] out of a local population of 192,107 (and has been for over a week now)

There are 23 cases in [son's county] out of a local population of 1,189,934

Which probably averages out as not so many more per head. But their heads are much closer together, and there are so many more of them.

I'd better stop at home, eh.

Our esteemed leader (it's okay, don't panic, he's ours not yours!) has just told the UK that we should all - even if well - avoid non-essential social contact (e.g. work from home if possible) and unnecessary travel.

:(

Is seeing your kids and grandkids on Mother's Day essential? - if you haven't set eyes on them since September?

I do know the right answer, I just don't like it.

Add to our woes... Bad enough they buy up every damn sheet of TP, but now my online cat supply orders are showing up OOS (out of stock). I have it all on auto-ship, usually 2 day delivery and they are warning us of delays in shipping, which I am okay with. I was looking to reorg the various auto-ships to match our needs better, and can't finish it or push up the orders as MANY items are showing up OOS (if they are OOS, I can't add them to a different auto-ship so I can delete it from another.) At least the cat litter is coming and I do have enough food for them all for a while, just not what they might prefer...

While I understand the need for concern, stocking up A BIT just in case and being careful/cautious, this is ridiculous!

Beatty, I am well stocked with asthma meds and even the OTC stuff we may need, not because of covid-19 so much as for the annual winter flu cycle. We only have one confirmed covid-19 case within 80 miles (from an international traveler) in Northeast TN but the grocery store shelves emptied this weekend. The national closures have finally caught the attention of a lot of folks. My brother went to Sam's Club for his normal shopping trip and discovered the meat counter was nearly empty; no chicken or beef, only some pork loin and chops and a little seafood available. Most of our standard groceries still have some stock of almost everything, but it's very strange to see the OTC med shelves empty. My niece-in-law had to visit a couple of stores yesterday to get cleaning and OTC supplies for her parents who had purchased nothing previously.

So far, no one is reporting problems getting prescription meds here but that may change this week as people call their doctors for new/extra scripts. The university, colleges and a couple of private K-12 schools have gone to online classes only (some churches too); unfortunately, that's not practical for the county school systems because internet access isn't available in large sections of the counties. The schools have plans and will shutdown as soon as the first community spread case shows up a little closer to our area. One school administrator told me Friday shutting down the schools now would be a shame (from an attendance POV) since last week was their best attendance rate as we come down from the annual flu season peak.

I really expected the college kids and other vacationers to bring covid-19 back from spring break to push the virus in our area because I think that group would have more exposure (in larger cities and travel hubs) and the fewer good hygiene practices. With the schedule changes, it might be the more normal transportation routes or family visits that ends up bringing covid-19 into our medium sized cities and rural areas.

Katiekate,you are brilliant with informing the obvious or relaying worst case scenarios. Who exactly are you blaming for restricting our travel with China because I believe that was curtailed quickly? Are you really saying that China handled this better than we are? I realized you posted on March 5th and will credit you with calling it a pandemic. Too bad you don't like the handling our country is doing because you are surely stuck here now.

TNtechie, I hope you have your asthma meds?

I suffer asthma with colds & tried to buy an spare Ventolin today. The sales woman just stared at me - there is NONE, nada, zilch.

Last Friday, I asked myself what would happen if we got the virus. We would face lockdowns or closures. I pay most of my bills in person. So, I decided to register on each utility's website and made my very 1st online payments.... I also figured that if the banks close how would I have access to my emergency cash? I don't have an ATM card for my checking or savings acct... Checked my Rx. I'm down to 6 cholest pills left. I will need to get the refill before they end up closing the pharmacy/clinic.

Today, our governor confirmed we have 3 cases of the virus. All non-essential govt offices are closed immediately (power, water, motor vehicle, tax dept...) I was able to complete all my errands with the bank and pharmacy today. My cards will come in 3 weeks. I asked the agent which bank app to download on my iPad. She said that it's good that I came in today. Because once the governor declares all private businesses must close, the bank will close. The ATMs will still be working, though. I have a d*rn headache from the stress of the unknown.

@Cuntrymouse and @BarbBrooklyn

Thank you for answering. I'm in a badly affected area in Europe and I think my main problem atm is galloping paranoia. Our water is normally very safe, but I recall reading somewhere that people in Hong Kong got SARS - which was also spread with feces - drinking tap water in the same building where others were found contagious, because some small particles could leak between pipes... or something similar. Please forgive me, I really don't want to alarm anybdody and I can't even quote the source, so this is probably not true. I have had some diahorrea in these last couple of weeks and my stomach gurgles a lot, but again I think is just the anxiety. I don't have any other symptoms.

See, this should deserve a topic by itself, how to fight virus panic, the real enemy.
I just hope this will be over soon, for all of us. And I will stop reading news now.

Current information is important. Early reports should be taken with a big grain of salt as newer information is shifting. Here's a link to symptoms and differences between COVID-19, flu, and colds by webmd (dated March 10, '20):

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200310/know-the-symptoms-of-covid19

For those concerned about fecal transfer from diarrhea, diarrhea is a symptom for 4% of those infected.

Well, it IS a pandemic.

The warnings about fecal-oral route infections and boiling water are for unreliable water sources, not those in the US. (Govt regulation is what keeps our water safe, for those of you who want to tell me that "the markets will take care of that". Tell that to to mother of the child dead from dysentery.)

Where did you read that, Arwen?

Sigh. If it makes you feel better, boil and cool drinking water.

But with what will you wash your hands?

I suppose it depends on how much trust you have in your local water supplier. Have you been worrying about dysentery or E coli much lately? If not, then I shouldn't worry either about catching Covid-19 from what comes out of the mains water supply in the United States of America.

For those who were wondering, it seems COVID also Spread by Fecal-Oral Route.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85315

This worries me a lot.

I've read that when a virus is transmitted this way we should stop drinking tap water. Do you think this is true/ the case?

Johnson City is in the Northeast corner of the state, about 160 miles from the closest major damages in the area around Cookeville TN, home of Tennessee Tech University. Whenever I have a day trip to Nashville, I usually stay in a locally owned hotel in Cookeville, then drive the 40 miles or so into Nashville the next morning and return to Cookeville at the end of the day. Cookeville hotels are generally nicer, quieter, less expensive and safer than accommodations in the larger city while Cookeville itself has lots of nice restaurants.

Cookeville has/had one of the original Holidome hotels where Holiday Inn enclosed the courtyard area between two buildings to create a large pool area. The pool in Cookeville had both an indoor area and an outdoor area where you can swim outside from the indoor pool. When we stayed there one weekend about 30 years ago, my nephew liked swimming outside where it was 20 degrees and patting his hair, which would freeze when he surfaced. I last stayed there 4 years ago but have not heard if the dome survived the tornadoes or not.

I have a few relatives and many friends in the tornado area, but haven't heard from everyone yet because several cell towers are down and many of the younger folks do not have landlines.

TNTechnie, I've read as well of using eucalyptus to break up the mucous but hadn't read of its use in steam baths.   

Sounds like you got the Cadillac of tests and checks; I hope you're feeling better.

And that reminds me that I feel so much better just from being outside for a short while.   Nature is such a healer, in so many ways.

BTW, not to ask specifically where you are but were you affected by the tornadoes?

GA, I do indeed have HEPA filters and humidifiers throughout the house and I've already been to the asthma specialist for a lung check, x-ray, sputum testing to confirm bacterial infection, antibiotics, new nebulizer and a new inhaler medication. Using Epsom salts with eucalyptus to steam up the bathroom and take a "steam bath" for 1-2 hours a day helps to soften up the mucus so I can cough it up easier. Right now I have very little sinus involvement.

Geaton777,

I almost gagged when I read about the guy who brushes his teeth in a shared room.   Yuck.   



I've thought of another aspect of contact with potential Coronavirus carriers:   returning missionaries.  

I know that the Mormon church sends their missionaries to a lot of different places.    I assume they're subject to screening when they return via plane or boat.

They're generally brought back to local "wards" (local units, such as "branches"),  and mingle with the other members, including the older ones.   If they've been exposed but haven't yet manifested symptoms, they could be vectors.

TNTechnie,

I don't have asthma, but perhaps some things I've discovered might help, although a doctor's visit would probably provide more information and relief for you.

I've had major sinus problems which began with passing out while in my teens, but which abated over the years.   For whatever reasons (which I discovered later), this started again about a week ago - pressure in the eustachian tubes, slow drainage, thicker mucous, a LOT of coughing, and of course some anxiety as to whether this was just the old sinus problem or something new.

I had no cough drops and was too lazy to drive out to get some, so I used the tea routine, heating a tea bag (I had no fresh herbs) and inhaling the vapors, eventually loosening the blockage.   The coughing has almost abated, but the biggest thing I've discovered is the cause:  paczkis.    Chocolate is also a contributing factor.

I like the Bavarian crème paczkis,  and,  well, being honest admit that I may have overindulged.    That's when the problem started.   Eliminating paczkis plus the teas have helped, and testing with a paczki or chocolates started the pressure buildup again.

During the suffering period I realized how dry the air was, and that the electronic furnace filter needed cleaning. I ran a big HEPA room air filter, and added smaller air filters to buy for other rooms.    The humidifier on the furnace seems to be worthless; I think localized units are preferable.

I'm guessing you probably already have room air filters, or moisturizers?   

I'm still researching on how sugar can affect airways and nasal passages, but sugar isn't on the good things to eat list in the first place.

I hope everything is all good for you TNtechie.

Hopefully it is something simple and you recover quickly.

Prays and hugs for and to you.

Most likely a big part of my worry has to do with my own health right now. I've been struggling with my asthma this winter; the sudden weather shifts have not been kind. I've developed a bacterial infection in my lower left lung that is resistant to clearing up and the productive cough is driving me crazy at this point. I'm being scoped tomorrow to see if the root cause might be the same as a similar problem I had 28 years ago - a food particle sucked into the lung. Last time it was a carrot shred. I'm activating one of my backup care giving plans; Mom will be going to stay with her sister after tomorrow's adult day care for the weekend.

We share office space with a subtenant, 16 people total and use 1 kitchen. Yesterday I walked into the kitchen to "catch" a guy brushing his teeth and rinsing and spitting into the sink. Which had dirty dishes in it. After a diplomatic discussion I got the sense he still didn't see any problem with what he was doing, rationalizing that doing it in the bathroom on our floor was somehow "worse" because even more people us that. Never mind that he's not the one putting the dishes in the dishwasher or prepping food on the counters. Never mind that it is splattering hither and yon. Never mind that one of my salespeople has actual COPD and carries an oxygen machine around and he knows this. I am just dumbfounded. I'm so angry I'm not sure I can go to the office today and look at this man. So if anyone is wondering how coronavirus is spread "so easily": apparently by thoughtlessness and stupidity.

Younger cohorts so far are doing best, TNT - another point of distinction between this virus and 'flu, and also SARS; there's a proportionate increase in mortality alongside age. Apparently. So far.

I'm not concerned about a great plague but I will admit to being concerned about something like the 1917-1919 Spanish Flu. My grandmother lost two brothers, aged 17 years and 17 months. There were several deaths in the extended family, mostly children but a few young folks too. I could easily accept my mother's death and even my own after she is gone. I worry more about exposing the family's children.

As proven by at least two people - out of how many, Book? Thousands and thousands and thousands.

At a guess, I'd say those two people had the virus *still*, rather than had it twice. I've heard no information that they tested negative in between, have you?; so perhaps, as happens with glandular fever for example, those two were unfortunate in that their symptoms returned after an initial recovery.

It is clear that enormous numbers of people have had the illness so mildly that they haven't even suspected it (and there will be even more who haven't been tested, either).

This is not 'flu at all. It is an entirely different type of virus. Because it is novel and no population has natural immunity it will spread very quickly, but that tells you nothing at all about how dangerous it is.

What's niggling me at the moment is that at the end of last year, October or November, I caught a horrible bug - rapid onset but mild fever, and then a horrible racking cough that went on for a good week or two until I finally shook it off. Everyone had it, I didn't think anything of it. But now I'm wondering just how sure the WHO is about the source of Covid-19 and whether it only came to light because of its emergence in extremely large, crowded centres of population like in Wuhan.

In any case imagining Great Plague scenarios, with whole families locked in their houses and left to die by unfeeling governments and frightened communities, is really not going to help.

My sister, her hubby & I are planning to visit her daughter in late May. But with the Coronavirus spreading widely and fast, her mom told her that we most likely will postpone our trip. We live in a Pacific island within 4 hours flight from Philippines, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. We have tourists from all these destinations. We know that it will come here - it's a given.

My niece told her mom that her doctor said that the media is over-exaggerating the Coronavirus flu. He said it's just like any other flu. Niece believes him... It is Not like any other flu. It is very contagious. The virus is so tiny, that regular face masks are useless. One needs those respirator face masks (similar to what painters use.) It's a one-time use - and there is a special way of putting it on /taking it off. It must completely cover your face (as in no openings on the sides.)

Your body does not gain any immunity from it after you have recovered from it. You can get it again - as proven by at least 2 people...

By the way, I saw videos of Wuhan. In the beginning, the gov't was dragging whole families (if one person was sick) out of their apartment into a van. Because of the widespread, the gov't is now welding their apartment doors shut. When I first saw this, I wondered how they were going to get their food??? The next day, I was telling sis this. Sis said that the gov't is going to prevent it from spreading by locking down the whole city. Everyone is going to die in there. That's why they're welding the doors. They're not going to let anyone out of that city... like in the movies.

It is a pandemic. WHO just decided to remove that word from their vocabulary, but we met the definition set out by WHO...it is a pandemic, As soon as there were countries in every region of the world seeing this move through their populations, WHO decided to not use that word, Yeah, like that will fix it.

remember WHO was still advocating airline travel with China in January..... felt the economic impact would be too great to stop air travel. Even though Chinese scientists were reporting human to human transmission....but, couldn’t hurt the economy! Well, our incompetent government is making it worse too. This will spread unchecked and unseen here.

so, we need to accept that this virus will be added to the annual flu....like N1H1. The goal now is to slow it down.

every individual needs to take all measures to ensure they do not catch it. Each of us must take up this ... we are now the firebreak. Act as though every person you are in the same room with has this virus. Wash your hands ... sing happy birthday twice. I watch a woman wash her hands yesterday...she barely had time to get the soap on before rinsing it off.

as a community...we here will see this impact far greater than the general population. We have elderly in our care...the highest risk. We protect ourselves and through that protect them.

Coronavirus can survive on surfaces for up to 9 days. This week I ordered some new usb cables from Amazon and when they got here the packaging stated "Made in China" so I've started wiping down the outside of every item, including the groceries I got delivered from Walmart. Maybe I'm over-reacting but it doesn't take long and it makes me feel better.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronaviruses-how-long-can-they-survive-on-surfaces

I'd just like to comment here that it is already a pandemic,, since by definition that means a virus or disease that has spread from one country to another.. or across the globe. I am not making light of coronavirus,, just that this is wording is leading people to panic.. We live in a world of pandemics! Flu, ebola, SARS, you name it. TB is making a comeback in the US and other developed counties where it was once thought to be eradicated! As travel from one country to another is so comman these days, any bug or virus is going to spread, and rapidly.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Last updated: March 04, 2020, 19:05 GMT

Given only the # of reported cases (consider how many more there might be unreported, because for many people this virus is no worse than a common cold and the seek no treatment, therefore they are not counted - that would change/lessen the percentage of deaths/person infected), the number of deaths are not yet leading to me thinking this is going to be much more than the SARs scare was.

# cases: 95079
# deaths: 3249

Using ONLY these numbers one could surmise that the death rate is 3.4%, BUT consider this:

Of the 3249 deaths, MOST are in China. If you combine numbers for the "big 4" (China, Italy, Iran and S. Korea), there have, to date, only been 34 deaths in ALL the other reporting countries (79 + Diamond Princess) combined. Only 11 of those 80 have reported deaths. MANY of the deaths (esp those in WA) are older people and/or had co-morbid conditions (many of the WA cases came from the same LTC facility.)

Additionally, this site has ESTIMATED %ages of death based on age and gender brackets. Only when you get above age 50 does the ESTIMATED number rise above .4%. It gets higher for each age bracket going up.

Again, these numbers and estimates are ONLY based on actual or suspected cases - they do NOT include those who may have contracted the virus, but had little or no symptoms and sought no treatment, therefore are not included in the head count!

If you happen to be older, live in/near places having higher %ages of cases, and esp if you have other serious medical conditions, then you have reason for more concern and more caution. The current media scare tactics are overdoing it for the rest of us (and impacting the stock market/economy!!!)!

Be/stay informed, sure. Take simple precautions, sure. Panic? Why? Others mention how many have died this year alone from the flu (~12000 in the US alone.) 24 confirmed dead (some still missing) in less than a day due to a tornado in TN! About 40000/year die in car crashes! PANIC!!! Get rid of your cars!!!! I'm not about to dig up other stats, but given these comparisons, this virus is small potatoes.

It does also sound like the further from China this spreads, the less deadly it has become, which is often the case as the virus mutates. Many of the people outside of the 4 big hitters actually traveled to one of those "big" hitterss too. Given we have about 327 MILLION people in the US alone, the current 137 cases seems very very low and is not concerning me. Sad for those who died and their friends and families, but seriously, 137 cases, 9 dead and we're seeing Armageddon??

No clue yet who patient 0 is yet for WA state, but clearly the worst case happened there with LTC/ill patients being infected somehow by this patient 0. NOTE: In the latest reports, it indicate the first case in NC had ties to the WA location. So, it's all in who you know...

For those who are condoning sanitizing your home - doing it now, before anyone is sick might give you squeaky clean house, but provide a false sense of security. If the virus isn't in your home when you do this, you won't be protecting yourself against it!